Damian Mah is the director and chairperson of Carnegie China. He joins us now from Singapore. Good to have you with us. So, it’s the first trip by the Chinese leader to the White House in a decade. He received a warm welcome. Does that indicate that ties between the two countries are also warming up? Well, first of all, it’s good to be with you, Sammy.
There is a growing personal rapport between President Trump and President Xi.Uh, I think you saw that even on display in Beijing when Trump went there for the first summit. And so I think this personalized principle-to-principle model of relationship is fairly new in the US-China relationship.
Both leaders are quite invested in it. And so they are building a personal relationship, and frankly, that is actually an important element in, uh, managing, uh, you know, the superpower relationship. How far will they get down to the substance of issues like expanding their trade, uh, truce, and sorting out issues from soybeans to, um, processing chips? Are they going to get into that kind of detail, do you think, in this meeting? Well, I think they’ve extended the truce already for just two months, which Palestinians question UN’s role as Israeli settlement expansion continues.
It’s a bit less than some people had anticipated. Uh, but but but to your two T’s, trade in Taiwan, I would add a third T, which is technology. And I think we all know that AI is going to be top of the agenda, but beyond that, it’s also going to be about chips, and, importantly for the US side, it’s going to be about rare-earth permanent magnets.
Trump-Xi talks seek stability as US-China tech rivalry persists, analyst says
So those are the three areas I think on technology that I think frankly are more important than the trade side, because trade is really about negotiating, you know, the level of tariffs. I think the Chinese, at this point, are accepting that there will be some tariffs on Chinese goods.
The thornier and more challenging aspect of the technology bucket. Maybe I’ll ask you about that in a moment. What about Iran? Uh, what do you expect the US president to say to the Chinese leader about Iran and China’s position on that conflict the US has entangled itself in? Dreams never die Sudanese refugee struggles as aid cuts hit Kenya
Well, you know, interestingly, President Xi before coming to the United States, he made a pretty uh big splashy announcement at the brick summit in uh India where where he basically said that China’s, you know, more willing to uh to help negotiate or to be more involved in a in a in a in a peace deal or ceasefire uh in regards to Iran, which you know, China has never really been that forthcoming.
So, you know, I’m sure that will be on the table, and let’s see, you know, whether the US administration is receptive to that, but I think China certainly wanted to float that in advance of the trip to the United States.
And so it does show that China is increasingly more willing. I think, as you’ve heard, you know, President Trump says many times that he feels China has, you know, basically held up its end of the bargain and hasn’t intervened too much in the Iranian situation, and so, uh. Still, there’s obviously a lot of room for the idea, Damian. What do you make of the idea of perhaps a quid pro quo, Taiwan for Iran? Is that from the Chinese thinking? Cambodia scam crackdown drives cybercrime networks worldwide
Do you think that kind of idea would go down with them? Uh, I think there’s been some speculation about that particular, you know, tiff or tat deal, but I don’t think it’s really in the cards. Taiwan is very challenging, and I think there are a lot more different conditions and factors at play. Uh, and, uh, I think, you know, I don’t think just simply trading is anywhere near realistic.
talking about being realistic. How realistic is it to expect that even if times are warming, they can extricate the US and China from this deep competition when it comes to technology, especially AI? Well, that’s exactly it. There’s this inherent paradox that’s producing some tensions in the relationship, that at the very top, at the political level, there’s definitely vested interest to have some stability, and you know, let’s not forget that you know, US and China have been in this contentious relationship this period
Since 2016, so about a decade now, and it actually began in the first Trump administration. Ironically, it’s in the second Trump administration that he’s done a complete pivot on China, uh. So I think you know, some stability, some floor in this relationship, and that’s what this is about: putting a floor on the relationship so it doesn’t descend any further. I think that’s great for the global economy because, you know, markets move based on what happens between us and China.
uh, but at the same time, as you rightly note, there is this level of tense competition, whether it’s AI or other technology, you know, areas or supply chains, uh, there’s a very strong competition. I think both sides accepted that, and if you put a floor under the relationship, you’re better able to manage the competition so it doesn’t get out of hand.
